Gregor Weekly Macro Note: Saturday 14 November 2009

• Gregor Macdonald
• November 14th, 2009

As the decade prepares to end I am not able to find a single example of serious scholarship that effectively refutes both peak oil as a general concept, or, that refutes the assertion that world oil production is currently peaking. To be quite honest, the field of energy studies is poorer not richer as a result. And it’s surprising to me that those who have researched and written about peak oil this decade have been able to maintain such a rigorous work standard, in the absence of serious opposition. As 2010 approaches, and the issue of peak oil in both nominal terms and real/financial terms bears down even harder upon the world economy, the opportunity for any serious rebuttal diminishes. This will of course have further implications for an economy already in deep trouble, and, for the question the world faces about the dollar, and the meaning of money.

There are three types of opposition to peak oil theory. The first comes through the most basic misunderstanding of the concept itself. Peak oil means peak flows, not peak quantity of oil in the ground. Probably 70-80% of the people who open their mouths to speak about peak oil do not make it past this first, crucial hurdle. I have found almost no correlation at all among those who fall down at this threshold. Here, there is everyone from the most cavalier TV blatherer to the person who loves to greet all new concepts with the word “nonsense.” There’s also a fair chunk of the journalist class here as well. They tip themselves off everytime with some form of the phrase “running out of oil.” Sigh. I used to think those who wrote for newspapers actually liked to learn new things.

So to get past the first hurdle, one needs to understand peak flows because it’s central to understanding the data of the last 10 years. When I say data, I don’t mean a small amount of data either, but all world data not only on oil but also on coal and other primary energy consumption, and data on projects costs and project completion timelines. Production, Consumption, Exports, Net Exports, Substitution, Timelines, and Costs. This brings me to the second type of opposition to peak oil. There are a fair quantity of industry people and others who are well acquainted with data but it’s largely post-war data up until the start of this decade. Among this group the spare capacity/OPEC control era made the greatest impression on their careers. Also here are those who have made a career out of (what I call) the 90 day oil market–that is making calls on supply and demand over the next 90 days. What binds this type of opposition together is good, solid understanding of a world of oil production that no longer exists. They just don’t believe anything changed after 1999-2000.

Finally there is the philosophical and historical opposition to peak oil. Here we find the benign transitionists and other believers in the magical nature of self-organizing systems. Most here grant that peak oil will eventually become a reality, but whether its a reality now or later, it won’t matter. Technologists, inventors and optimists are prominent here. However, what’s not addressed in this group are the twin issues of Scale, and, previous energy transitions. Thus, the first type of opposition never really gets into the game. The second type of opposition only sees part of the problem (but with clarity), and the third type believes in a grand theory that’s not so well supported historically. For example, the previous two energy transitions, from Wood to Coal and then Coal to Oil, were notable in that humanity was moving from lower to higher density energy sources each time. Finally, it’s odd to me how many persons with math and science degrees avoid the issue of Scale. Didn’t they watch the old (Charles and Ray Eames) Powers of Ten video in first year Physics?

So why does any of this matter? Let’s say oil has peaked and the transition is going to be rough. Really rough. Well, what I’d like to address today is how this might effect what we commonly refer to as money. (this article continues for subscribers through the membership gateway, on the right side of this page)

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Tickers: Debt, Economy, gold, Peak Oil, Transition

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