End of the Quarter: Model Portfolio Update

• Gregor Macdonald
• March 31st, 2010

The GregorWeekly model portfolio at the end of Q1 2010 is up 10.04% since inception (September 1, 2009). Turnover has been light the past 7 months and the core positions in Gold, Silver, and the Australian and Canadian Dollars have largely been maintained during the period. Oil and Gas, Australian Shares, Mining Shares, and Coal exposure are currently adding to performance. As we head into Q2 however–a quarter I’ve identified where reflation could go to die–caution is finally warranted. And that’s why today I lightened exposure to “stocks.”

Wow. So there were actually large traders in bond and currency markets, over the past month, positioned for a FED hike in the foreseeable future? That was certainly the message of the markets today, which saw US Treasuries firm and the USDollar whacked when the ADP Jobs report came in much weaker than expected. With the end of Q1 dead-heading into the Friday jobs report from Washington, you can say it really is spin-the-wheel time for short-term traders in bonds and currencies. These timeframes of course don’t concern us. The model portfolio presses onward in its goals laid out at inception: positive absolute performance while maintaining much lower exposure to “stocks.”

Because the relationship between market sentiment, price levels, and macroeconomic conditions has once again reached a concerning juncture, I retreated from full exposure today by…(this article continues for subscribers through the membership gateway, on the right side of this page)

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Tickers: FXA, FXC, GLD, SLV

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