GregorWeekly » FXA

The CCI: GregorWeekly Model Portfolio Update

Gregor Macdonald — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 01:17:34 +0000

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Mighty Aussie: GregorWeekly Model Portfolio Update

Gregor Macdonald — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 20:51:30 +0000

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Dollar Time: GregorWeekly Macro Note

Gregor Macdonald — Sun, 18 Jul 2010 16:27:38 +0000

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Gold Transition: Model Portfolio Update

Gregor Macdonald — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 21:55:38 +0000

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The End of Pretend: GregorWeekly Macro Note

Gregor Macdonald — Sun, 11 Jul 2010 21:11:30 +0000

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Not 2006: Model Portfolio Update

Gregor Macdonald — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 16:33:12 +0000

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Market Juncture: 6 July 2010

Gregor Macdonald — Tue, 06 Jul 2010 22:52:35 +0000

In the just released May data, Australia saw a 50% leap in revenues from gold exports when compared to the prior month. While this data is noisy and volatile, it meant that Gold in a single month increased on a valuation basis from 3.5% of exports to 5.5% of Australian exports. This is a theme that I have raised several times this year, most recently in the May 30, 2010 issue of StockTwits Macro Weekly, Dig Oz. Australia is on the threshold of seeing gold head towards 10% of exports.

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QE 2.0: GregorWeekly Macro Note

Gregor Macdonald — Sun, 27 Jun 2010 15:43:09 +0000

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Resolution Coming: Model Portfolio Update

Gregor Macdonald — Fri, 14 May 2010 04:47:10 +0000

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End of the Quarter: Model Portfolio Update

Gregor Macdonald — Thu, 01 Apr 2010 03:54:53 +0000

The GregorWeekly model portfolio at the end of Q1 2010 is up 10.04% since inception (September 1, 2009). Turnover has been light the past 7 months and the core positions in Gold, Silver, and the Australian and Canadian Dollars have largely been maintained during the period. Oil and Gas, Australian Shares, Mining Shares, and Coal exposure are currently adding to performance. As we head into Q2 however–a quarter I’ve identified where reflation could go to die–caution is finally warranted. And that’s why today I lightened exposure to “stocks.”

Wow. So there were actually large traders in bond and currency markets, over the past month, positioned for a FED hike in the foreseeable future? That was certainly the message of the markets today, which saw US Treasuries firm and the USDollar whacked when the ADP Jobs report came in much weaker than expected. With the end of Q1 dead-heading into the Friday jobs report from Washington, you can say it really is spin-the-wheel time for short-term traders in bonds and currencies. These timeframes of course don’t concern us. The model portfolio presses onward in its goals laid out at inception: positive absolute performance while maintaining much lower exposure to “stocks.”

Because the relationship between market sentiment, price levels, and macroeconomic conditions has once again reached a concerning juncture, I retreated from full exposure today by…(this article continues for subscribers through the membership gateway, on the right side of this page)