Posts Tagged ‘TBF’

• The End?: Gregor Weekly Macro Note
  Gregor Macdonald, March 6th, 2010 at 11:53 pm, Comments: 0

  Apparently the (labor) recession ended while I was attending the MIT Energy Conference in Cambridge-Boston on Friday. Job losses came in less than expected and the economists who are prone to keep things simple were generally quite upbeat on the report. Bloomberg Radio had two macroeconomic observers back to back on Friday, the first being [...]

• Silver Flashing: Model Portfolio Update
  Gregor Macdonald, March 3rd, 2010 at 6:07 pm, Comments: 0

  The gold/silver ratio continues to come down from recent highs, when the 72.81 level was hit, and is currently sitting at 66.28. This most recent thrust off the Greece drama looks like it’s going to carry some. At least through the end of March. And, I think we should look for the ratio to fall [...]

• House of FED: Model Portfolio Update
  Gregor Macdonald, February 24th, 2010 at 11:55 pm, Comments: 0

  When the FED confirmed its intentions to terminate its MBS buying program as planned in March, I immediately began to wonder how they could diplomatically reverse course should they change their mind. A very funny commentator, on the Calculated Risk blog, wrote sarcastically: As of April 30th, the FED mortgage-backed security buying program is now [...]

• MacroTwits Hour: Sunday Night Show 14 February 2010
  Gregor Macdonald, February 15th, 2010 at 8:41 am, Comments: 0

  The full range of stocktwits.tv programming can now be taken through iTunes. See link at bottom of the StockTwits. TV front page. Regards, –Gregor

• Roll On Sovereign Hockey Puck. Roll On: Model Portfolio Update
  Gregor Macdonald, February 10th, 2010 at 11:51 pm, Comments: 0

  In this weekend’s Macro Note to subscribers, I posed a question about the spread of risk in sovereign debt.  And, I suggested the following first step to a model for how this turmoil eventually plays out among the candidate countries of the world. I was struck that so many assumed the contagion would proceed in [...]

• Oil Looks Ornery: Model Portfolio Update
  Gregor Macdonald, February 3rd, 2010 at 11:44 pm, Comments: 0

  For 14 months now those who’ve been bearish on the price of oil have pointed to very high oil inventories. And while it’s true that US inventories remain high, it’s quite clear that global inventories peaked between March and August of last year. Additionally, the price trend higher is now a year old. It started [...]

• Podcast Picks: Friday 22 January 2009
  Gregor Macdonald, January 22nd, 2010 at 5:15 pm, Comments: 0

  Life After Layoffs: roundtable on self-reinvention after job loss, WBUR OnPoint Radio.
  Massachusetts Revolt and Obama’s Agenda: roundtable on Tuesday’s Senate result, WBUR On Point Radio.
  Long Shot: stories of people betting on something with very bad odds, mostly because they have no other choice, This American Life Radio.

  America in Decline: interview with Flynn and Fallows, WAMU [...]

• Here Come the Deficit Hawks? Model Portfolio Update
  Gregor Macdonald, January 20th, 2010 at 10:01 pm, Comments: 0

  The market sees the coming of the Deficit Hawks, in the wake of last night’s Massachusetts Senate election. And that’s understandable. While Congress can’t as yet control monetization by the FED, a determined opposition could indeed start to slow down the serial increases in the debt limit ceiling. Initially, that’s dollar supportive or at least [...]

• Treasuries and Tax Revenues:Model Portfolio Update
  Gregor Macdonald, January 13th, 2010 at 7:32 pm, Comments: 0

  The grinding gears of falling tax revenues and increased supply of treasuries are finally coming to pass, here in early 2010. When both the stimulus and the financial crisis were young, it was possible to imagine that increased savings by Americans and then an eventual recovery in the economy would arrive just as the situation [...]

• Big Macro Data: Gregor Weekly Macro Note
  Gregor Macdonald, January 9th, 2010 at 11:37 pm, Comments: 0

  The first week of the year was stuffed with some big macro data. This was fitting as we now have the bracket of the last 10 years through which to see a number of important trends in the US economic story. Essentially, we’ve been spinning our wheels since the Nasdaq cracked in the Spring of [...]